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Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."