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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.