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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It commonly functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence wins the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or just the biggest upset.

Yet this year's competition is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and recent also-rans rising collectively. During an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun year, he's competing with five other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a normal year!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still